Lars Pind

internet software, coaching, and entrepreneurship

Lars Pind - internet software, coaching, and entrepreneurship
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Housing inventory goes up

June 06, 2006 · See comments

A friend pointed me to the counter on boligsiden.dk, which currently lists 40.875 apartments and houses for sale. Just last week the number was in the low 39.000’s. It’s going up fast. It’s gone up by more than a hundred today alone. And my friend says it’s been rising fast for at least the 6 weeks since he started following it.

It seems a pretty clear that the insane housing inflation that we’ve seen in the past years has come to a halt. Whether prices will fall is a bit too early to tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised.

UPDATE: Added the links from Guan here, because Textile trips over them: rolf/JL_FI2.pdf”>http://www.math.ku.dk/rolf/JL_FI2.pdf,

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Comments ↓

  • 1 Guan Yang // Jun 06, 2006 at 03:17 PM

    For a look at how house prices and debt-to-income ratios have evolved over the years (briefly: nothing has changed since the last crisis in 1992/3): http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/JL_FI1.pdf http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/JL_FI2.pdf http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/JensLunde.pdf In Denmark the mortgage banks' capital adequacy ratios are supposed to be at least 8% (at least pre-Basel II). According to popular legend, the ratio for Realkredit Danmark (which was then Kreditforeningen Danmark) hit 8.000% (three zeros) at one point during the crisis in the early 1990's.

  • 2 Thomas // Jun 06, 2006 at 05:48 PM

    It's gonna be interesting. A substantial amount of the people i know have extra apartments they're renting out or a are leasing apartments from people who all ready have a home. On the owner-side just waiting for the right time to get out of the market. It's gonna be really interesting to see what happens when this big pool of supply hits the market.

  • 3 Lars Pind // Jun 06, 2006 at 05:50 PM

    I think that's exactly what's happening right now. These people are thinking now is the peak and have already started offloading their excess inventory.